2022 NBA Playoffs – Tips for Betting on Saturday Matches in Game One

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What you need to know about Saturday’s play-off games

Luca’s loss: The Mavericks will be without Luka Doncic in the final on Saturday with Jazz. Jalen Brunson sees his use and assist rates swell to star levels when Doncic is far from Earth. Vilanova’s producer has averaged 22.1 points and 7.5 assists per 36 minutes with Doncic off the field this season, compared to 18.4 and 5.4 with him. In addition to Bronson, microwave scorer Spencer Dinwiddy has starred in such scenarios. His usage increased 9.1% to team level to go with a slight increase of 13 DraftKings points per 36 minutes with Doncic off the ground. Center Dwight Powell, on the other hand, sees his scoring clip drop significantly when Doncic isn’t on the field.

Steph effect: Steve Kerr joked that Stephen Curry won’t play the 38 minutes in Saturday’s comeback from a foot injury, but he won’t go into specific restrictions for his superstar goalkeeper. One notable consequence of Curry’s potential return is how persistent Jordan Paul’s intense divisions with his teammate have been this season. The Most Improved Player candidate averaged 25.1 points, 5.8 dimes and 10.3 3-point attempts per 36 minutes with Curry off the field, but his rates drop to 18.2, 3.5 and 7.6 when they share the floor. If Curry can get back into shape, it is fitting that Denver concede 50.2 DraftKings points per game to direct the guards this season, the fourth-most in the league.

We point forward: Without a true traditional guard, the Toronto Raptors often split distribution tasks among a few major playmakers. Striker Pascal Siakam has been particularly dominant among the 76ers this season, scoring his career hat-trick in a victory just a few weeks ago. Serving as a starter for Toronto against the Sixers, he’s averaged 8.3 d’s against this season, which makes Siakam’s 4.5 assists support standout, as is his ability to flirt with DFS productions.

Swat watch: Grizzlies’ Garen Jackson Jr. has penetrated the entire league by 40 blocks this season. This outstanding defender has posted scores of hits against the Timberwolves in four games this season, the most against any single opponent. With a 1.5 block prop with heavy juice plus cash for 2.5 blocks on most books, “JJJ” heads into Saturday’s opener against Minnesota with value for defensive props as the league’s top frame protector.

– Jim McCormick


night game

Toronto Raptors at Philadelphia 76ers
6 p.m. ET, Wells Fargo Center, Philadelphia


Line: 76ers (-4.5)
money line: 76ers (-190), Raptors (+160)
Total: 216 points
Expected total BPI: 212.8
BPI % win: 76ers (66.2)

Key players excluded: Nobody

Noticeable: The Raptors have won four of their past five games as an underdog.

game

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Erin Dolan shares her favorite bet in the first round series between the Raptors and the 76ers.

Best Bet: Tobias Harris under 1.5 gets 3secs. Harris fired 18.8% from a 3-point range in four games against the Raptors during the regular season. Toronto’s defense continues to improve, and is likely to limit Harris. – Erin Dolan

Best Bet: Pascal Siakam over 23.5 points. Siakam has been big on his stretch, averaging a 27.0 PPG in his last 20 games, over 23.5 points in 14 out of 20 games. He’s still been better against the 76ers in particular, averaging 30.3 PPG on 50.7 FG% with at least 26 points in all three of his games with them this season. – Andre Snellings

Best Bet: Scotty Barnes over 0.5 making 3s. Barnes isn’t known for his 3-second shooting ability, but he averaged a 2.6 per game. He’s hit a hat-trick in five of his past six games and two of his three games against 76ers during the regular season. – Eric Moody


Smash the rest of the board

Utah Jazz at the Dallas Mavericks
1 p.m. EST, American Airlines Center, Dallas


Line: Jazz (-5.0)
money line: Jazz (-210), Mavericks (+175)
Total: 209.5 points
Expected total BPI: 216.8 points
BPI % win: Mavericks (50.7%)

Key players excluded: Luka Doncic

Noticeable: The home team has won each of the past seven games between the Jazz and the Mavericks.

Best Bet: Rudy Gobert at 14.5 rebounds. Joubert’s recoil strut seems high, but he needs to dominate the glass, and I don’t see the Mavericks answer after they replaced Christaps Porzingis for Washington. Joubert has surpassed this in five of his past eight games. While he hasn’t hit it in three straight games, the previous two against elite competition, he’s come out with 21 rebounds against Memphis and 20 rebounds against Golden State. You can count on Gobert to rise in the big matches. – Dolan

Best bet: Jazz-5. With Doncic left out, the Mavericks will be without the player responsible for the vast majority of their success this season. Jazz comes with a distinct advantage, and if they get any hint of the kind of “playoffs” Donovan Mitchell blast they usually get from him in post-season, they should be in better shape. – snoring


Minnesota Timberwolves at Memphis Grizzlies
3:30 p.m. ET, FedEx Forum, Memphis, Tenn.


Line: grizzly (-7.0)
money line: Grizzlies (-300), Timberwolves (+240)
Total: 235 points
Expected total BPI: 227.8 points
BPI % win: Grizzlies (72.5%)

Key players excluded: Nobody

Noticeable: Each of the past nine Grizzlies matches has surpassed the total.

Best bet: More than 235 points. Timberwolves ranked seventh in points scored per 100 properties while Grizzlies ranked fourth. In addition, both teams score a lot of points in transitional games. There will be a lot of possessions in this game, which absolutely bodes well. The total number exceeded thirty-six of the 52 Timberwolves road games — Moody.

Best Bet: Memphis 1H (-4.5). The Grizzlies were the league’s best team in the first half of the regular season, taking a 54-27-1 lead. Memphis are also 8-2 ATS in 1H overall and at home over their last 10 games. Both teams play at some of the fastest pace in the league. I think the Grizzlies jump quickly and put a lot of points. – Dolan

Best bet: Anthony Edwards over 22.5 points. Edwards averaged 24.4 PPG over 11 games to close out the regular season. The Grizzlies’ defense will be hard to beat, but Edwards has scored 23, 27 and 30 points in his previous three games against them this season. This could be the moment to shine. — Moody

Best Bet: Desmond Bunny Over 27.5 Points + Assists + Rebounds. Bane enjoyed an outstanding second season in the league. While Ja Morant and Jaren Jackson Jr. They get a lot of attention and rightfully so, Bane has been integral to the success of the Grizzlies. He averaged 18.2 PPG during the regular season, and the Timberwolves allowed 23 PPG, 5.1 APG, and 7.0 RPG. Bane will likely meet or exceed these rates per game on Saturday afternoon. — Moody

Best Bet: Patrick Beverly under 9.5 points. Beverly had seven points against the Clippers, but the boy had his enthusiasm fired after the Timberwolves beat the Clippers. It’s only right that he fades with him in this match. He has averaged nine points in his past four games against the Grizzlies and has had a points boost in only two of the past 10 games. – Dolan

Best Bet: Karl-Anthony Towns under 24.5 points. Cities retreated offensively along the expanse, in part to allow Anthony Edwards to shine. Towns averaged 22.4 PPG in the last 10 games of the regular season, having been below 24.5 points in six of those games, then only managed 11 before losing in Wolverhampton’s win over the Clippers. Towns faced the Grizzlies four times this season, averaging 23.3 PPG, and scored 22 points against them in their last game. – snoring


Denver Nuggets at Golden State Warriors
8:30 p.m. ET, Chase Center, San Francisco


Line: Warriors (-6.5)
money line: Warriors (-260), Nuggets (+210)
Total: 223 points
Expected total BPI: 224.4 points
BPI % win: Warriors (68.4%)

Key players excluded: Nobody

Noticeable: The Warriors failed to cover the spread in seven of their past eight playoff matches as a candidate.

Best Bet: Nuggets +6.5 points. There’s a good chance the Warriors will get Stephen Curry back for Game 1, which marks one of the only times this season that the top five players will be playing together on their team. They have a huge upside, but may be experiencing some growing pains as Curry clears up the rust and everyone gets to play together again. The Nuggets have finished the season well, leading 25-10 in Nikola Jokic’s last 35 games, and going 3-1 in their four encounters with the Warriors this season. – snoring

Best bet: Draymond Green More than 23.5 points + assists + rebounds. Green will be the most important Warriors player in the series. He has averaged 7.0 PPG, 10.3 APG and 8.0 RPG in his past four matches against Nuggets. Power Attackers thrived against Nuggets during the regular season and averaged 22 PPG, 3.5 APG, and 10.5 RPG — Moody


Analytics Edge

Highest predicted BPI totals

1- Memphis Grizzlies (117.4 points)
2- Golden State Warriors (114.9 points)
3- Minnesota Timberwolves (110.4 points)

Lowest expected totals BPI

1. Toronto Raptors (104.1 points)
2- Utah Jazz (108.3 points)
3- Philadelphia 76ers (108.7 points)

Highest probability of winning BPI (Direct)

1- Memphis Grizzlies (72.5%)
2 – Golden State Warriors (68.4%)
3- Philadelphia 76ers (66.2%)