Hawks vs Cavaliers odds
|time||7:30 p.m. Eastern time|
|cross odds BetMGM. Get up to a minute NBA odds here.|
On Friday night, the Cleveland Cavaliers host the Atlanta Hawks in the Eastern Conference playoff final to determine the No. 8 seed.
The Cavaliers fell into a hole early in Game One against the Brooklyn Nets. They are down 20 points after the first quarter and 14 points in the half. They kept slipping away from the net, but were unable to regain the lead. However, they did move away with a cap of 9.5 points, to the delight of the bettors of the Cavaliers.
The Hawks dominated the Charlotte Hornets with a 132-103 home win on Wednesday night. Despite Trae Young’s bad night of shooting, the Hawks managed to get contributions from all over the board with six players scoring in double digits.
At the time of this writing, the Hawks are the 2.5 favorites on the road. This really represents the market sentiment on these two teams all season long: overvaluing the underperforming Hawks and underestimating the struggling Cavaliers.
The local teams have won all four of their playoff matches so far. Can the Cavaliers make it five in a row? Let’s dive into the match below to see if we can find any betting edges.
Do the Falcons have another post-season?
The Hawks stunned the league last season with a huge rise last season and an impressive run to the Eastern Conference Finals, giving eventual champions the Milwaukee Bucks a run for their money. They have completely exceeded expectations and established themselves as a team to be afraid to move forward.
Or so we thought.
The Hawks barely finished ninth – and looked set to finish 10th, but they managed to move up to ninth by finishing the season strong and winning eight of their previous 10 games.
Plus, they had a home ground advantage in the first game, which is crucial. However, this game will be on the road and will perform exponentially worse on the road. They are 16-25 directly on the road and 14-27 ATS. It’s a horrific scene.
Registry wasn’t the problem either. Atlanta’s offensive ranking is second (115.4) in the league, according to NBA Advanced Statistics. However, their defensive rating is 26 (113.7) and they have allowed teams to walk above them.
The Hawks are missing a big man of their own in John Collins, who has missed 17 games in a row with countless injuries. The Hawks have not announced his departure, but coach Nate Macmillan has stated that he is unlikely to play if the Hawks advance.
Lou Williams, a veteran contributor, will also miss the bench. In addition, Bogdan Bogdanovich will be called into question tomorrow. He is one of the Hawks’ most trusted scorers behind Young.
Although the Hawks are playing really well, I think they will be overestimated by their success in their previous game against the Hornets’ lacking defensive proficiency.
Health is the key to Cavaliers
Garrett Allen is the tenth factor here for the Cavs. His Friday game situation is up in the air as he recovers from a broken finger that has caused him to miss his last 19 games. Reports suggest he’s doing everything he can to play on Friday, but he’s still listed as questionable and is a real call to playtime.
Rajon Rondo had some solid minutes down the extension. With Rondo, his expertise and craftsmanship have been extremely beneficial to the Cavaliers. Along with Garland, he is allowed to play off the ball and create chaos for opponents.
The Cavs have gone 7-12 in those games and the On/Off numbers the Cavaliers shoot their opponents to score 3.2 extra points per 100 possessions when off the court, according to the Basketball Reference. If he comes back for this game, I’m more optimistic about Cleveland.
The Cavs were excellent at home. They went 25-16 (61%) straight and 23-17-1 (57.1%) against the spread at Quicken Loans Arena. This will prove even more important because the advantage of the local stadiums was really important in these matches and the roaring fans would provide some extra energy to the home team.
Even without Allen, they still have some strong defenders, led by rookie rookie Evan Mobley and Darius Garland, who has taken a huge leap this season. He led a comeback effort against the Nets and scored 34 points in a 13-24 shot. Their defense should provide a much longer mission against the Hawks than the Swiss Hornets’ cheese defense.
Both teams play at a slower pace, and I like that the Cavs thrive more on the half field with the best defenders.
Hawks’ Choice Cavaliers
The money and all the action seem to favor the Hawks in this match, but I’m going to support the Cavaliers here. The defections at home favor the Cavaliers greatly and they stand a chance of bringing Allen back into the squad. The Falcon deals with a myriad of injuries on their own.
Without dealing with Collins, expect Mobley (and possibly Allen) to be able to help Young and his two other scorers.
I think this narrative fits the theme throughout the season. The Cleveland Cavaliers have been criminally disparaged and the hawks are constantly placed on a pedestal. This is no different here.
Cavaliers have an injury And convenience feature. The value is in the Cavs here – bet them on the spread and don’t be afraid to add some on the money line.
picking Cavaliers +2.5
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