Our Top 5 picks for Thursday, including Phillies vs Marlins, Blue Jays vs Yankees & More (April 14)

We’ve entered a week into the 2022 MLB season and hit our first “day off”, with a bunch of series starting or concluding.

There are a total of 11 games on the list, including the opening series tilt between Cardinals and Brewers, and a final match between Blue Jays and Yankees.

Our analysts are involved in both games, including a selection three from the first, as well as a squad at the Phyllis Marlins.

Here are our top five bets from Thursday’s Major League Baseball roster.

MLB Choices & Odds

St. Louis Cardinals vs Milwaukee Brewers

pick or pick
Cardinals +125
the book
points
jugs
Adam Wainwright vs. Brandon Woodruff
the first show
5:14 PM ET

Tanner McGrath: We got the Redbirds super-hot lineup with their ace on the hill with more than +130 odds.

What do you not like?

The Cardinals are low on population, and I’d even bet their total under-win this season. But I am ready to support them in this place.

The Cardinals posted 152 games per week + 152 per week in the season, coming in at .271 with .874 OPS despite below average .271 BABIP. Meanwhile, Wainwright pushed on his first start, giving six players goalless while hitting six Buccaneers and not letting them walk.

Put it all together, and the cardinals will be 3-1.

Meanwhile, beer bats haven’t solved the problem. Having averaged just 2.8 runs per game over the first five rounds, the Brewers were able to do just three runs against the humble Orioles, and the normally dominant back of the Bullpen blew a two-stroke lead against – once again – the lowly Orioles.

Brandon Woodruff is the best pitcher from Wainwright. And brewers have a better stylus than the St. Louis.

But the Cardinals lineup has a huge advantage. And the way these two are headed, I can’t help but support the Cardinals here at any rate above +130.


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St. Louis Cardinals vs Milwaukee Brewers

pick or pick
Cardinals +125
the book
points
jugs
Adam Wainwright vs. Brandon Woodruff
the first show
5:14 PM ET

Michael Arens: The Milwaukee Brewers are back at 0.500 after winning the last two games of their series against the Orioles. I wouldn’t get too excited, however, considering that Baltimore is one of three teams to have only one win per season.

Over the past four years, the Brewers’ initial rotation has prompted the team to appear in a playoff game in each of those seasons. However, the 2018 season was the only time Milwaukee’s offense averaged above average at WRC+.

Milwaukee’s rackets are struggling again to start the year, ranking 20th with a WRC+ number of 87. It’s worth noting that Milwaukee also didn’t get production from its suspended crew as it ranks 21st with a 4.24 ERA. Usually, when this is early in the season, bowlers tend to have the upper hand against the hitters. However, with short spring training this year, I think shooters are at a disadvantage.

On Thursday, Milwaukee will send Brandon Woodruff to the hill after a rough initial start allowing seven runs in 3 2/3 innings against the Cubs. Normally, I would have looked forward to Woodruff’s support to get back to normal. However, he also struggled during spring training and allowed 15 times in 11 2/3 rounds.

Woodruff will face the Cardinals who have won their past three encounters with him on the hill. Milwaukee is also 0-6 in its past six starts. Although he finished with a 2.56 ERA in 2021, his 3.31 SIERA could herald the decline we can expect this season.

Given what we know about this brief spring training for shooters, I’m more inclined to favor teams with better offenses. The Cardinals are ranked second with a wRC+ value of 153, and yet they come to +125 below par.

Since my model has this game closer to money, I think the Cardinals are worth a look, and I’ll play them up to +115.


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St. Louis Cardinals vs Milwaukee Brewers

pick or pick
liquor makers -140
the book
BetMGM
jugs
Adam Wainwright vs. Brandon Woodruff
the first show
5:14 PM ET

Jules Posner: Brandon Woodruff didn’t have the best appearance of the season, but he got the ball back in the Brewers’ home opener and should bounce back.

Woodruff completely dominated the house last season to hit a 2.31 ERA with a 2.74 FIP in 2021. He tracks that with his career splits.

The Brewers’ offense was tasked with opening the season by playing at Wrigley Field hostile against a chip-over-the-shoulder team and newly attacking fortified Camden Yards. Not the best position to start their attack.

However, returning to American Family Field will definitely boost morale and hopefully be an offensive output.

I’m always on Adam Wainwright’s train when he plays at home, but I’d betray him when a curve ball fell the second time he puts his foot elsewhere. I’m ready to do it again in this match.

Wainwright did well on the road last season, but given the lopsided schedule, the wins over the Cubs and Pirates on the road isn’t impressive at the end of the day.

The Cards have the best attack in MLB in terms of a wRC+ team currently, but they haven’t been challenged the way they’ll take on Brandon Woodruff just yet.

ML Brewers looks really good today.


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Philadelphia Phillies vs Miami Marlins

pick or pick
Marlins -115
the book
points
jugs
Kyle Gibson vs Sandy Alcantara
the first show
6:40 PM ET

DJ James: Sandy Alcantara loves to use his slider. He will throw it around 35% of the time. This works well for him because in the Phillies, only Bryce Harper, Nick Castellanos and Kyle Schwarber have deployed .330 xwOBA or better against the right hand sliders.

On the other hand, Marlins can hit right incisors and dippers. Gibson uses these two phases combined more than 50% of the time. Every hitter on the team, except for John Berti, Miguel Rojas, and Peyton Henry has .330+ or ​​better xwOBA on these pitches.

That’s a rough match for Kyle Gibson, even if he’s a savvy veteran and will know his way around the bulk of the Miami lineup.

Philly Bullpen showed some massive improvements here at the start, but that shouldn’t be a huge advantage, considering that these two are some of the best shooters in every squad.

Looking at the edge on the offensive side, paired with Alcantara on the bump, the Marlins are the right side. Take them to -130.


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Toronto Blue Jays vs New York Yankees

pick or pick
Yankees total over 4.5 (-110)
the book
kings
jugs
Kevin Gusman vs. Louis Severino
the first show
7:05 PM ET

Kenny Dosey: Kevin Gusman may have finished sixth in the Cy Young vote last year, but that wasn’t thanks to the way he finished the season. The right-hander posted 4.42 ERAs during the second half of 2021 on 15 starts, allowing for an average hitting of 0.26 and a home run every 26 bats on average.

Perhaps a regression was coming, given this season’s 3.52 xERA, although that’s not necessarily a bad number even though it’s well above the ERA he ended the year with.

All this means is that Gausman’s opening start to the season, where he allowed three rounds on eight strokes for the Rangers, is a little lower in terms of what we saw late in the season last year right. It is also worth noting that the offenses he will face in the MLS will likely be more serious.

That’s what we have here at the Yankees. While it’s still pretty early, I have to point out that New York has had a hit rate of 55.2% and 15.2% per barrel over six games, which seems to suggest they are out of luck in rallying just 21 times during that time. Both of these brands are leading the big leagues, and it’s a horrifying sight for Guzman, who has given up after a blow since his All-Star break last year.

I don’t want any part of guessing whether or not Luis Severino is back, or for the Blue Jays attack to fade. With that, I will target the entire team.


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